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Demand Forecasting.
Justifying a transport improvement relies heavily on projections of the likely number of users. We undertake an assessment to ensure that the passenger projections are as realistic as possible. Typically this process involves building a computer model, which may range in complexity from a simple spreadsheet to a large bespoke model, depending on the project.
- Models will typically address factors such as:
- How many people in each area want to travel?
- Where do they want to go?
- Which mode of transport will they use?
- What particular route and/or service will they use?
- We have experience in constructing and running many complex transport planning models. The model building process typically includes:
- Commissioning surveys and gathering data
- Model building
- Calibration and validation to ensure that the model reflects the real world
- Running the model to produce estimates of future demand
- Analysis of the model output, typically to produce revenue projections
- We have in the past either used existing models or built our own to test issues such as:
- How new rail schemes will capture traffic
- Whether service enhancements will lead to rises in passenger numbers
- How surface rail links can improve airport access
- How passengers move around stations and concourses
- Whether the introduction of premium fares will generate additional revenue to cover the costs of the proposed improvement
- Our skills and expertise in this core area of transport planning ensure that realistic a estimates of future patronage are produced, which can then be used to show whether or not a scheme improvement is justified.
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